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Verification of the prediction for the staffing need for the economy of the region

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Z. Vasilyeva,  (Doctor of economical sciences, professor, Siberian Federal University)

I. Filimonenko,  (Doctor of economical sciences, associate professor, Siberian Federal University)

Series "Economics and Law" # 12  2017
The problem of verification of the forecasted values of the personnel needs of the economy is related to the lack of generally accepted criteria and indicators that estimate the likelihood of the forecast and its accuracy. The purpose of the study is to form a system of monitoring indicators that allow verification of the forecast of the personnel requirements of the regional economy and to justify the accuracy and reliability of the forecasted results. The authors developed a methodology for monitoring personnel needs, taking into account the specifics of the development of the regional economy (traditional sectors of regional specialization, new sectors - high-tech, innovative). The estimation of structural shifts between the actual and projected parameters of the staffing requirement is estimated on the basis of the average value of the indicator error and based on the indices of A. Salai and K. Gatev. The approach proposed by the authors to verify the results of the forecast of the personnel requirements of the economy will allow to ensure the reliability of the procedures for forecasting the staffing requirement and the objectivity of adjustments to parameters caused by changing target targets.

Keywords: region, economic sector, high-tech sector, staffing requirement, forecast, verification of forecast, monitoring indicators, adequacy of forecast indicators, forecast error, the basic conditions for forecasting, methods of monitoring.

 

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© 
Z. Vasilyeva, I. Filimonenko, Journal "Modern science: actual problems of theory and practice".
 

 

 

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