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Seasonal and Comparative-Historical Analysis Types in Relation to Futures Spreads

Kakabadse Nada   (PhD, professor in Management and Business Research, University of Northampton, Northampton Business School)

Perchanok Kirill Grigorievich  (PhD, University of Northampton, Northampton Business School)

The futures spreads market can barely be called efficient. Thus, futures spreads trading requires the constant and active use of different types of analysis to make trading decisions. Despite the importance of this subject, research on it is very limited. There are five basic types of analysis that can be used when working with spreads: fundamental, seasonal, technical, comparative historical, and regression-correlation. This series of articles aims to extend the currently limited literature on the analysis of futures spreads. Its objectives are to consider in detail the possible practical application of all types of analyses to spreads, to assess the supplementary function of comparative-historical analysis, and to demonstrate the inefficiency of application of the regression-correlation analysis for practicing investors. The series consists of four papers: the first article discusses fundamental analysis, the second paper deals with technical analysis, the third one covers seasonal analysis, explores comparative-historical analysis, critically examines regression-correlation analysis in relation to spreads, and the final paper of the series proposes a framework of co-integration of the four types of spreads analysis for the purposes of creating trading strategies and decision-making. This paper is structured as follows: section one discusses use of seasonality analysis in working with futures spreads, section two deals with comparative-historical analysis, section three critically examines regression-correlation analysis in relation to spreads.

Keywords:futures spreads, seasonal analysis, comparative-historical analysis, regression and correlation analysis.

 

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Citation link:
Kakabadse N. , Perchanok K. G. Seasonal and Comparative-Historical Analysis Types in Relation to Futures Spreads // Современная наука: актуальные проблемы теории и практики. Серия: ЭКОНОМИКА и ПРАВО. -2013. -№03-04. -С. 35-39
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