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Analysis of factors influencing the growth of population income in the Russian regions

Zaernyuk Victor M.  (Russian State Geological Prospecting University named after Sergo Ordzhonikidze)

Shenderov Vladimir I.  (Russian State Geological Prospecting University named after Sergo Ordzhonikidze)

Zabaykin Yuri V.  (Russian State Geological Prospecting University named after Sergo Ordzhonikidze)

Kostin Mikhail P.  (Moscow State University of Technology and Management named after K.G. Razumovsky)

In connection with the crisis processes observed in the world and the national economy, the problem of the standard of living of the population, assessing the factors that affect the income of the population, have not only scientific but also practical significance, has recently acquired a particular urgency. In the article, based on the correlation-regression analysis, the key factors determining the greatest impact on the incomes of the population in the context of the Russian regions were investigated and identified. As independent variables, the impact of the gross regional product, investment in fixed assets, the population, the average annual number of employed in the economy, consumer spending per capita on average, fixed assets in the regional economy, agricultural output, the introduction of the total area of residential buildings, turnover of retail trade, financial performance of organizations. The sampled sample is represented by fifty-five Russian regions. The quantitative dependence of the monetary incomes of the population in the context of the federal districts of the Russian Federation is revealed. Methodology. The estimation was carried out by the method of least squares. The data set was checked for multicollinearity, the homogeneity of the data was checked with the help of the Chow test, the check for gmoskeadstichnost based on the tests of Goldfeld-Kuandt, Breusch-Pagan and White. Results of the study. When checking the initial observation set for multicollinearity, a strong linear relationship between the factor variables was established, which was eliminated during the analysis of the correlation matrix. As a result of the study, it can be argued that the income of the population is closely dependent on the population and the level of consumer spending. Statistical evaluation of the received equation for the marked tests makes it possible to assert with 95% confidence that the obtained predictive model is statistically significant, which gives the authors a reason to recommend it for use in prediction practice.

Keywords:population incomes, forecast model, correlation analysis
 

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Citation link:
Zaernyuk V. M., Shenderov V. I., Zabaykin Y. V., Kostin M. P. Analysis of factors influencing the growth of population income in the Russian regions // Современная наука: актуальные проблемы теории и практики. Серия: ЭКОНОМИКА и ПРАВО. -2018. -№01. -С. 16-22
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