Assessment of the relationship between cyclical fluctuations in macro- and meso-level economics: tools and their testing

Safiullin M. R., Elshin L. A., Abdukayeva A. A.

The questions revealing features of interaction of multi-scale business cycles in terms of the scientific and practical importance, are extremely relevant, especially in the context of studying of cyclic development of regional social and economic systems and their embedding in the generated macrocycles. The present article is also devoted to a research of this methodological aspect. An object of a research are cyclic fluctuations of economy macro - and mesolevel. The methodology of the formalized assessment of identification of interrelation between them on the basis of definition of the integrated index estimating expectations of economic entities of rather future transformations in the system of social and economic transformations and the economic systems forming phase shifts of cyclic development meso - and macrolevel acts as an object of research. Approbation of the developed approaches allowed to construct trajectories of cyclic fluctuations of regional business cycles, to correlate to macrocyclic fluctuations of national economy and to reveal in the formalized look interrelation level between them and also the nature of inclusivity of regional business cycles in the generated macrocycles. By results of the received estimates the consistent pattern demonstrating that the level of social and economic capacity of the region, the less its dependence on the generated macroeconomic cyclic fluctuations of national economy is higher is determined.

Keywords:cyclic fluctuations of economy, methodology of a research, expectation of economic agents, interrelation of business cycles, regional business cycles, regions of Volga federal district