Formalized assessment of environmental and economic risks of sustainable regional development: methodological approaches and their testing (on the example of the republic of Tatarstan)

Mavlyautdinova G., Elshin L.

The subject of the study is the systematic diagnosis of ecological-economic risks (EER) of the region, which determine the stability of regional socio-economic dynamics. Ecological-economic infrastructure of catchments of the Republic of Tatarstan is the object of the study. The authors consider in detail aspects of the topic such as the formalized assessment of regional environmental-economic risks in the context of modelling their impact on the key macroeconomic parameters of the region. Special attention is paid to the methodological principles of quantitative measurement of EER through the lens of evaluation of its key components characterizing three states of the system: impact, response (sustainable efficiency) and productivity. The methodological basis of the study was the works of domestic and foreign scientists and specialists in the field of research of problems of theory and practice of management of regional economic systems taking into account assessment and analysis of “ecological load” of territories. The implemented calculations are based on methods of system, calculationanalytical and comparative analysis, special methods of statistical analysis and mathematical modeling. The main conclusion of the study is that the level and quality of environmentaleconomic infrastructure development should be largely taken into account in the study of regional economic growth, as it generates appropriate risks to the sustainability of macroeconomic dynamics. The main element of the novelty of the study is the proposed methodological tool for formalized assessment of EER, which opens the prospects for the construction of objective economic and economic models, which determine the relationship between the risks of environmental development of territories/regions and the key parameters of their socio-economic development.

Keywords:region, sustainable development, ecological-economic risks, modelling, ecological-economic infrastructure of the region, catchments, factor analysis, probabilistic analysis, socio-economic dynamics, Republic of Tatarstan.