The global energy market: analysis of energy production and demand, sector prospects

Volotkovskaya N. S., Volotkovskaya Yu. A., Semenov A. S.

The paper analyzes the global demand for various energy sources in recent years. A number of works are considered in which by 2040 a double increase in the global energy production market is forecasted. Also, a number of other works predict the transition of energy demand from the US and EU countries to the Asian market. The percentage distribution of global energy needs is provided, provided by six types of resources, among which oil, gas and coal will remain dominant. Some studies have suggested that the demand for natural gas will continue to grow faster than the demand for oil or coal. To confirm or refute this theory, the authors constructed a mathematical model of the dynamics of gas demand in comparison with the total demand for oil and coal, as a result of which two different polynomial functions were obtained with almost the same probability confirming this forecast. The article also noted such important factors as: a decrease in solid fuel production in the UK; steady growth in the importance of renewable energy in the last few years; slowdown in the development of nuclear energy by some key countries; general shortage of energy resources in the EU countries, etc.

Keywords:demand, energy consumption, oil, gas, coal, renewable energy sources, world market, mathematical model.