Potential for lower mortgage rates by the end of 2020

Metreveli E.

The purpose of this article is to explore the potential for lower mortgage rates by the end of 2020. The object of research is mortgage lending. The subject of the study is the factors that influence the value of mortgage interest rates, as well as the forecast of their changes in 2020. The following methods were used to conduct the study: – statistical analysis (calculation of the dynamics of changes in mortgage rates for 2017-2020); – correlation analysis of the relationship between mortgage rates, key rate, inflation rate, and return on assets; – multiple regression analysis between mortgage rates, key rate, inflation rate, and return on assets. Data from the Central Bank and the Federal state statistics service (Rosstat) served as the information base for the study. The article analyzes the dynamics of mortgage lending rates for 2017-2019, and forecasts changes in rates for the end of 2020. It is shown that the reduction of the key rate of the Bank of Russia at the end of 2020 to 3.5% and the inflation rate not higher than 4%, in accordance with the constructed model of multiple regression, the mortgage rate can be 6.67%.

Keywords:mortgage, mortgage lending, interest rates, commercial banks, housing, construction industry, analysis, forecast