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The purpose of this article is to study the limit of reduction in mortgage rates by the end of 2021.
The object of the study is the cost of mortgage lending in the Russian Federation.
The subject of the study is the factors influencing the value of mortgage interest rates, as well as the forecast of their changes in 2021.
To conduct the study, the following methods were used:
– statistical analysis (calculation of the dynamics of changes in mortgage rates for 2008-2020);
- correlation analysis of the relationship between mortgage rates, the level of inflation, as well as the rate of growth in real estate prices.
The information base of the study was the data published by Rosstat (Federal state statistics service) and the Central Bank of Russia.
The article defines the characteristic features of mortgage lending and analyzes the dynamics of changes in interest rates on mortgage lending for 2008-2020, makes a forecast of changes in mortgage interest rates at the end of 2021. The components elements of interest credit rates that are cost risk, the cost of Bank's costs and profit margin.
According to the forecast using a regression model, the mortgage lending rate in 2021 may reach 7.55%. The factors influencing the cost of mortgage lending are determined and it is concluded that the maximum impact on the final rate of housing mortgage lending is exerted by the factor of inflation.
Thus, the marginal decline in mortgage lending is near 7.5%, which is higher than at the end of 2020. This correlates with expert forecasts and corresponds to the current socio-economic situation.
Keywords:mortgage, mortgage lending, interest rates, inflation, real estate price growth rates, credit, lending, key rate, real estate market, mortgage rates forecast.
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