ECONOMIC AND MATHEMATICAL METHODS AND MODELS IN ASSESSING THE LABOR MARKET

Kryuchkov Andrey Igorevich, Kitaev Konstantin Konstantinovich

This article contains mathematical analysis and forecasting of the Russian labor market. The use of economic and mathematical methods and models to solve problems in economics makes it possible to identify the relationships between various factors in the labor market, interpret them and predict them. Statistical methods, trend method, time series analysis methods and mathematical forecasting models were used. Analysis of Russian labor market data using mathematical methods showed that over the past 7 years, the size of the labor force, employment levels and unemployment have not demonstrated a stable linear trend. Trend in changes in the level of employment and unemployment in Russia for 2017-2023. are best characterized by polynomial trend equations. Therefore, polynomial models of the dynamics of employment and unemployment levels in Russia for the period under review were constructed. The constructed economic and mathematical models make it possible to predict further growth in the level of employment and a decrease in the unemployment rate in Russia. For a more accurate analysis of the data, it is proposed to include in economic and mathematical models factors that specify individual regions, requirements for age, education and the field of activity of employees.

Keywords:labor market, employment, unemployment, economic and mathematical methods, economic and mathematical models, forecasting