ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF GAS TURBINE CAPACITY PLANNING THAT ARE SUBJECT TO MODELLING AND AUTOMATION

Sadovskiy M. K., Mustakaeva E. A.

The article deals with the necessity of precise generation volumes forecasting to optimize costs, increase profit and ensure sustainable operation of a generating company. The research in the field of electric power industry economics and forecasting methods of the gas turbine capacity is analysed. The necessity of designing an information system which integrates data on forecasted weather conditions with operating parameters of SGT-800 gas turbine was justified. The economic efficiency of the automated control system implementation includes reduction of losses from irrational gas turbine’s operating modes, optimisation of the generation volume and profit increase by means of the forecast accuracy improvement. It is found that optimisation of the capacity request size requires the probability distribution function analysis and taking into account the normal distribution of deviations to maximise revenue and minimise penalties.

Keywords:generation volume forecasting, gas turbine capacity, modelling and automation in production process management, economic efficiency of information system design, informatization, generating company.