THE IMPACT OF MACROECONOMIC FACTORS ON THE SUCCESS OF COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE PROJECTS

Ryabtsev P. A.

The contemporary commercial real estate market is characterized by capital-intensive projects and significant credit risks, largely dependent on macroeconomic conditions. The purpose of this study is to identify the impact of key factors (interest rates, inflation, GDP dynamics) on the success of commercial real estate projects and to analyze the main indicators used by banks (LTV, DSCR, Balloon payment). The empirical base comprises statistical data from the Bank of Russia and major Russian banks, as well as analytical reports of consulting agencies (JLL, CBRE). Methods of factor analysis, scenario modeling, and expert assessments were applied. The findings indicate a direct correlation between higher interest rates and the risk of balloon payment growth, while DSCR proves most vulnerable during periods of economic instability. The study highlights issues related to lengthy bankruptcy procedures and asset discounting and offers recommendations for reducing overall risks for both banks and developers.

Keywords:commercial real estate; macroeconomic factors; key rate; LTV; DSCR; Balloon payment; project financing; credit risks; bankruptcy