OPTIMIZATION OF CONSTRUCTION SCHEDULES: MATHEMATICAL MODELS AND RISK MANAGEMENT

Sekisov Aleksandr Nikolaevich

The article is dedicated to the development and comprehensive analysis of mathematical models for planning and adjusting construction schedules, taking into account complex risks in the context of optimizing construction technology and organization processes. A critical review of existing mathematical models has been conducted, revealing their methodological limitations and proposing new multi-level models that consider the stochastic nature of construction processes, the interrelationship of tasks, risk dynamics, resource reservation, and adaptive responses to environmental disturbances. The developed models are based on the synthesis of methods from graph theory, dynamic programming, probability theory, fuzzy logic, and multi-criteria nonlinear optimization. Experimental validation of the proposed models on thirty real construction projects of varying complexity confirmed their effectiveness in improving planning accuracy (by 26,83%), reducing schedule deviations (by 21,47%), and saving budget (up to 9,52%). The research results make a significant contribution to the development of the theoretical and practical foundation of scheduling in construction, offering a qualitatively new approach to risk and resource management.

Keywords:construction schedule, risk management, mathematical model, project optimization, network planning, integrated management model