ASSESSMENT OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF THE DIGITAL RUPEE FOR CROSS-BORDER TRANSFERS TO INDIA: A CONSERVATIVE SCENARIO

Perminov Victor Alexandrovich

The article examines the impact of the introduction of India’s central bank digital currency (digital rupee) on lowering the costs of cross-border remittances. The analysis includes a historical overview of the evolution of India’s payment systems (from cash dominance to leadership in digitization through UPI), an assessment of drivers (reduction of transaction costs, strengthening the role of the rupee, financial inclusion) and barriers (technological risks, regulatory complexities, the “cash paradox”). The hypothesis that user costs will be reduced by at least 25% by 2030 is tested. A forecast model based on data from the regulator and the World Bank refutes the hypothesis but demonstrates a significant economic effect from the implementation of digital rupee technology.

Keywords:digital currency, financial inclusion, risks, costs, expenses