THE IMPACT OF CENTRAL BANK COMMUNICATIONS ON INVESTOR BEHAVIORAL EXPECTATIONS

Alyshev Ivan Ilyich

This article analyzes the impact of central bank communication policies on investor behavioral expectations, with a particular focus on the emergence of inflation expectations and irrational interest rate behavior among retail investors. Unlike traditional monetary approaches based on the assumption of rational and homogeneous information transmission, the study demonstrates that monetary authorities' messages are interpreted differentially depending on cognitive biases, the information context, and the level of macroeconomic uncertainty. Using an integrated methodology combining textual analysis of monetary communication, behavioral economics, and multi-agent modeling, the study identifies mechanisms of overreaction, anchoring, and information contagion at the origins of expectations disconnected from fundamental factors. The empirical results demonstrate that explicit integration of behavioral factors improves the stability of expectations and the effectiveness of monetary management, especially when it is targeted at retail investors.

Keywords:monetary communication policy; inflation expectations; behavioral finance; retail investors; multi-agent modeling; central banks