System analysis using lognormal distributions for the probabilistic assessment of reserves

Pryadko S.

In the article the problem of evaluation of reserves is considered with the help of volume method. The probabilistic nature of parameters from the formula is pointed out. The algorithm of reserves evaluation with the help of Monte-Carlo method is offered. It is shown that besides Monte-Carlo method it is possible to use lognormal distribution for reserves evaluation. Results of numerical calculations are given.

Keywords:oil and gas in place, triangular distribution, lognormal distribution, porosity, gas-saturation, mean power of a reservoir, gas-bearing area, distribution parameters.