The relevance of using the theory of fuzzy sets in planning the development of natural gas fields, taking into account the uncertainty of the initial data

Chuvashov Artur Alexandrovich, Kozhevnikova Polina Valeryevna

Improvement of methods for calculating hydrocarbon reserves and expedient methods for the development of natural gas fields is a rather urgent issue at the current stage of development of the oil and gas industry. The need to modernize these methods is dictated by the task of quickly entering the development of hydrocarbon deposits on the basis of an accurate assessment of hydrocarbon reserves in the shortest possible time and with low investment of funds. In a market economy, the production plan cannot be considered strictly specified, therefore, optimal plans are sought that maximize such a criterion as the cumulative production of a group of fields; the approximation-combinatorial calculation method is used in combination with the branch-and-bound method. In addition to the optimal one, methods that are close to it are sought, since this allows performing multicriteria optimization for non-main assessment markers. At this time, work is underway to improve the complex to take into account the fuzziness of the initial data, based on the use of the apparatus of fuzzy sets. And, although there are clear advances in various parts of the problem of developing hydrocarbon deposits in conditions of fuzzy, uncertainty and fuzzy block of information of the initial data, in general the state of its solution is not ideal. For the most part, the reason is that the studies are rather fragmentary and also have little coverage of the problem. Based on this, fundamentally new methods of creating a design complex for the development of oil and gas fields in the aforementioned conditions and current geological and field information are needed. A comprehensive solution in this case is one of the scientific directions for increasing the value of the coefficient of hydrocarbon recovery from reservoir rocks. One of its key advantages is the fact that oil and gas deposits are considered as a whole and, at the same time, their individual components are taken into account. The use of functions of fuzzy sets in the description of objects of development and assessment of methods of influence does not exclude an integrated approach, but, on the contrary, constitutes its initial natural basis.

Keywords:natural gas reserves, fuzzy set, development of gas fields, hydrocarbon deposits, indicators of development of gas fields.