Dynamic modeling in short-term load forecasting

Anoshenkova Ekaterina Viktorovna

Theoretical and experimental studies of the transitions of electrical systems with frequency-controlled asynchronous motors with positive feedback from the mode of developed chaos to various regular and chaotic symmetrical oscillations have been carried out. It is revealed that chaotic modes have a continuous spectrum, therefore, power losses occur in a wide frequency range. And also with a continuous frequency spectrum, the probability of resonant modes increases, which negatively affects the energy characteristics of electrical equipment. Therefore, an important task is to study and prevent the harmful effects of chaotic regimes. The development of methods for controlling chaos in dynamic systems of various nature is one of the important applied tasks of the modern theory of dynamic chaos. Based on the structural approach to the movement of an electrical system in phase space, it is possible to study the stability of intergroup movements, considered in all their diversity, as a problem of structural stability analysis. At the same time, due to the simplicity and visibility of the structures of intergroup movements, qualitative methods can be successfully applied to the study of the stability of the latter. To date, enough management methods have been proposed, the main purpose of which is to make an effective transition from chaos to small impacts on the system.

Keywords:chaotic regime, pseudo-phase space, nonlinear properties, trajectory of motion, nonlinear load, cycles.