DEVELOPMENT OF METHODS AND ALGORITHMS FOR OPTIMAL DECISION-MAKING IN THE MANAGEMENT OF AN INTEGRATED SECURITY SYSTEM

Lubentsov Alexander Vitalievich, Kobzist Sergey Yurievich

The work is devoted to the system analysis and development of methods and algorithms for solving problems of making optimal decisions on building a risk matrix and analyzing the compliance of the security system with them. To link the risk matrix of the object and the model of the security system, the objective function is determined. The conditions necessary for synthesizing the objective function are determined. An equation is postulated to minimize costs and maximize efficiency. The elements included in this equation are analyzed. Various models of forecasting the dynamics of risks are given. An original solution to the risk dynamics forecast is proposed as the application of stochastic differential equations to construct a model for predicting risk changes over time. The contribution of the influencing factor, its size is shown. It is shown that a predictive stochastic differential equation can take the meaning of the Ito or Stratonovich integral by stochastic change. Mathematical models for numerical calculation of risk dynamics with different time variability are given. Equations are proposed that allow modeling the dynamics of risks based on various natural laws that create this dynamics. The use of the cascade Method of Hierarchy Analysis proposed by the author to determine the gradations of importance of the characteristics under consideration is justified. Generalizing conclusions on the proposed models are given, recommendations for specialists in the construction of integrated security systems are given.

Keywords:security, integrated security systems, risk, probability of risk realization, risk dynamics, risk forecast, objective function of the security system