METHODOLOGICAL APPROACH TO PREDICTIVE RISK ASSESSMENT DURING TRANSPORTATION OF MATERIAL ASSETS IN CONDITIONS OF POTENTIAL USE OF ANTI-VEHICLE MINES BY THE ENEMY AND THE ALGORITHM OF ITS IMPLEMENTATION

Dolgov Andrey Alexandrovich

The article is devoted to the substantiation of the approach to predictive risk assessment in solving the tasks of resource provision of the units of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia in the conditions of the potential use of anti-vehicle mines by the enemy. When providing material means in conditions of potential use by the enemy (sabotage groups) of various mines, there is a possibility of hitting cars and equipment on the routes of column advance. To solve this problem, the mathematical apparatus of probability theory is used. The formalization of the process of the damaging effect of anti-vehicle mines on unarmored and lightly armored vehicles is considered. The author has developed an algorithm for predictive risk assessment taking into account external influences. The calculated results are adequate to real indicators. Based on the calculated data, it was revealed that the proposed methodological approach can be used in predictive risk assessment when providing material resources.

Keywords:transport, factors, risk, forecasting, evaluation, efficiency, risk management.