METHODOLOGY FOR STUDYING THE CURRENT AND PREDICTED STATE OF THE ERGATIC SYSTEM

Zababurin Vladimir Mikhailovich

The relevance of the problem of managing the state of the ergatic system is formulated. A hypothetical control subsystem is identified that ensures the safe state of the system under study. The essential variables of the ergatic system under study are determined: its target function, organizational structure, parameters of disturbing flows and the law of distribution of their intensity. The initial conditions for quantitative determination of the intensity of disturbances in the system are formulated. A formalized mathematical apparatus for analyzing and predicting the states of the ergatic system has been developed by determining its discrete states. Predictive filters were constructed for each time series of limiting probabilities of states of the system under study. The main advantages of the polynomial description of the line of behavior of the system under study are formulated. Ways have been proposed for the practical implementation of the methodology for studying the current and predicted states of the ergatic system under the conditions of the functioning of hazardous production facilities.

Keywords:ergatic system, research methodology, system analysis, system state, objective function, marginal probability, dangerous state, time interval, polynomial, system of equations