A SYSTEMATIC ANALYSIS OF THE PRACTICAL IMPLEMENTATION OF THE METHOD OF CONSTRUCTING A RISK MATRIX AND ESTIMATING THE COST OF COUNTERACTION

Lubentsov Alexander Vitalievich, Kobzisty Sergey Yurievich

The frequency of natural and anthropogenic risks in Russia is steadily increasing – more than 35 catastrophic natural processes and more than 200 major accidents and catastrophes occur annually on the territory of our country. The problem of synthesizing risk management systems remains relevant. The purpose of the work is to demonstrate methods and techniques for modeling risk maps and matrices for real objects. The work is devoted to the systematic analysis of methods and algorithms for solving problems of making optimal decisions on building a risk matrix and analyzing the compliance of the security system with them. The methods proposed by the author and presented in the article, such as risk ranking, facilities, decision-making to optimize the design and construction of an integrated security system, and efficiency assessment, have been implemented at 9 commercial facilities in Central Russia. The methods and models discussed in the article allow security practitioners to obtain an example of a sequence of actions in the synthesis of complex security systems. To prove the correctness and evaluate the effectiveness of the obtained models and developments, the results of the implementation and practical functioning of the integrated security system of 9 facilities for 4 years were analyzed. Losses from the risks existing at the facilities have become 19-27% less than the industry average.

Keywords:Security, integrated security systems, risk, probability of risk realization, risk dynamics, risk forecast, target function of the security system