THE USE OF SYSTEM ANALYSIS TO IMPROVE THE EFFECTIVENESS OF MANAGEMENT DECISIONS IN CONDITIONS OF UNCERTAINTY

Zueva Anna Nikolaevna

The purpose of the study was to explore the possibilities of using system analysis to improve the effectiveness of managerial decision-making in conditions of increased uncertainty of the external environment. Based on a theoretical review of the literature, a conceptual model of a systematic approach to management has been developed, taking into account many factors of an internal and external nature. As part of an empirical study, this model was tested on the example of the implementation of IT projects in a large Russian company. A system for monitoring and analyzing key indicators of 32 projects was created, and algorithms for simulation, machine learning and forecasting were developed. The results obtained confirmed the effectiveness of using a systematic approach. There was a decrease in deviations from the plan by 14-27% and a 1.5-2-fold probability of failure. Simulation modeling made it possible to predict 23% of possible problem situations, machine learning - 15%. In addition, monitoring data from one priority project showed a significant improvement in key indicators after the implementation of the developed model. In particular, fluctuations in the volume of work have been halved.

Keywords:system analysis, management decision-making, uncertainty, IT projects, management efficiency.