THE PROBLEMS OF EXISTING MATHEMATICAL MODELS FOR PREDICTING THE SPREAD OF HAZARDOUS CHEMICALS

Fatkhullin Konstantin Damirovich, Kudelin Artyom Georgievich

This study analyzes the existing deterministic mathematical models for predicting the release of chemicals. The purpose of this analysis was to determine the equations included in the models, the numerical methods used, the limitations of each model, as well as the implementation of the models considered. The study included a literature review and analysis of various deterministic models. Aspects such as the use of various parameters, including meteorological conditions, physical properties of the substance, geographical data and data on the distribution of areas, were considered. The results of the analysis showed that each model has its advantages and limitations. Some models present more accurate results based on the laws of physics and chemistry, but require a large amount of data and high computing power. On the other hand, more simplified (two-dimensional) models produce results much faster. Based on the analysis, it can be concluded that the choice of a model for predicting the release of chemicals should be based on the specific requirements and goals of a particular study or task. Further research may include the development of improved models, consideration of new factors and parameters, as well as more accurate calibration using real data.

Keywords:numerical methods, equations of mathematical physics, release of substances as a result of a man-made accident, forecasting