INFORMATION AND ANALYTICAL SUPPORT FOR MANAGERIAL DECISION-MAKING IN CONDUCTING CONTROL (SUPERVISORY) ACTIVITIES IN THE FIELD OF FIRE SAFETY

Elyasin Alexandr Alexandrovich

The modern system of regulatory and supervisory activities in the field of fire safety in Russia faces the problem of disproportion between the requirements applied and the actual risks. Federal legislation calls for proportionality, but in practice the principle “you can’t have too much protection” is often applied, leading to excessive economic and administrative burdens on businesses without always guaranteeing an optimal level of safety. This creates an acute need to develop scientifically based tools for informational support of managerial decision-making that would allow optimizing the set of fire prevention measures based on quantitative risk assessment. To solve this multi-criteria problem, the present study proposes a methodology based on adapting the Cobb-Douglas production function. Within the model, the traditional factors of production are replaced by indicators specific to the field of fire safety: the ratio of expenditures on fire protection measures to potential damage (the “capital” factor) and the ratio of required to calculated evacuation time (the “labor” factor). The input data for the model are based on official methodologies and statistics from the Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations, ensuring the objectivity and legal validity of the calculations. The result of the work is a developed model that allows quantitative evaluation and comparison of different sets of fire protection measures. Using an isoquant map built from the function, decision-makers can visually determine the optimal combination of measures that provides the required level of safety at minimal cost. This enables a shift from a costly, one-size-fits-all approach to a targeted, risk-oriented approach, where fire protection is scaled to the real threat rather than based on the formal fulfillment of every single regulatory requirement. The proposed method is an effective tool for implementing the legislative principle of proportionality in practice. It allows for finding economically justified alternative solutions, reducing administrative barriers, and concentrating resources on addressing the most significant risks. Implementing this methodology in the practice of supervisory authorities can enhance both the economic efficiency of fire protection and its actual effectiveness, ensuring a balance between the safety of people and economic interests.

Keywords:fire safety, risk assessment, managerial decisions, Cobb-Douglas function, optimization of fire protection.