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Mathematical model for emergence of mistakes in works of the project

Maron Maxim A.  (Postgraduate Student, National Research University Higher School of Economics (Moscow))

Emergence of faults in the works is standard project’s risk. For an assessment of consequences of this risk, it is desirable to know probabilities of faults. At the same time, property of uniqueness of a project, as a rule, does not allow to find required probabilities by means of statistical data. In this article offered the mathematical model for definition of probabilities of faults at implementation of the project. In this model accepted duration of work as a measure of its complexity, and the flow of the arising faults considered as Poisson.

Keywords:project’s risk, probabilities of faults, Poisson flow.
 

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Citation link:
Maron M. A. Mathematical model for emergence of mistakes in works of the project // Современная наука: актуальные проблемы теории и практики. Серия: Естественные и Технические Науки. -2016. -№11. -С. 44-48
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