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Application of the theory of probability in the long-term forecasting of the state authorities

Dubrov Dmitry   (candidate of technical sciences, Rector FGBOU VO "State Norilsk Industrial Institute" )

Good governance is impossible without forecasting management process and its consequences. Modern conditions of continuous development of society, pointed inconsistent implementation of socio-economic processes and political and administrative reforms in the Russian Federation, led to the need for improved methodological approaches to the formation of governance arrangements from the standpoint of enhancing the quality of governance in all levels of government. Since the control process is actually a continuous iterative process of making and implementing decisions, the application of methods based on the construction and improvement of models of probability theory make it possible to focus on the most essential and changing relationships and patterns that allow you to design a control system to be proactive and in a certain way to avoid uncertainty and risk.

Keywords:modeling, probability theory, forecasting, model governance.
 

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Citation link:
Dubrov D. Application of the theory of probability in the long-term forecasting of the state authorities // Современная наука: актуальные проблемы теории и практики. Серия: ЭКОНОМИКА и ПРАВО. -2016. -№12. -С. 20-24
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