ECONOMIC SECURITY OF THE SAMARA REGION TO 2030: A SCENARIO‑BASED ASSESSMENT IN A TURBULENT GEOECONOMIC CONTEXT

Vaskova Yulia I., Gorbunova Oksana A., Kravchenko Oksana V.

The article presents the results of a scenario based assessment of the economic security of the Samara region to 2030 under conditions of intensifying geoeconomic turbulence. The purpose of the study is to evaluate alternative trajectories of socio economic development and the corresponding level of regional economic security using a system of indicators and a risk oriented approach. The modelling results determine the range of variation of the integral index of economic security depending on different factor combinations and make it possible to identify the most vulnerable components and the region’s adaptive potential.

Keywords:regional economic security, scenario analysis, geoeconomic turbulence, Samara region, risk-oriented approach, security indicators, strategic planning, import substitution, sustainable development