THE ECONOMIC EFFECT OF INVESTMENTS IN ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE IN INDUSTRIAL ENTERPRISES OF THE DEFENSE SECTOR

Zakharova Zhanna Aleksandrovna, Al Humsi Ahmad, Kirbetov Kairat Alpysbaevich

The article is devoted to the theoretical and methodological substantiation of a comprehensive assessment of the economic impact of investments in artificial intelligence at industrial enterprises of the military-industrial complex of the Russian Federation in the context of technological sovereignty and sanctions restrictions. A critical analysis of the scientific literature and consulting reports revealed the fragmentation of existing approaches, limited by generalized data and declarative estimates without operationalization in return on investment and net present value metrics. The study developed a methodology that integrates regression modeling, calculation of return on investment and net present value, taking into account the specifics of closed production cycles of the military-industrial complex. The theoretical justification of the methodology is confirmed by modeling on the example of an enterprise such as the Techmash concern with investments of 500 million rubles: the return on investment was 2,900% (25% per annum), the net present value was 11.54 billion rubles with cash flows of 2, 6 and 7 billion rubles with a discount rate of 10%, due to reduced equipment downtime by 25%, accelerating research and development work by 30% and reducing costs by 15%. The methodology is expected to be tested on data from the Federal State Statistics Service and the Ministry of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation for 10-15 enterprises of the military-industrial complex with regression analysis for industry extrapolation of data. The theoretical conclusions form the basis of strategic recommendations for the digitalization of the military-industrial complex, increasing the technological sovereignty and competitiveness of the national economy.

Keywords:artificial intelligence, military-industrial complex, return on investment, net present value, economic effect, digitalization