BAYESIAN NETWORK APPROACH TO CYBERSECURITY RISK ASSESSMENT IMPLEMENTATION AND EXPANSION OF THE FAIR MODEL

Zhelenkova Margarita Borisovna, Goldovsky Yakov Mikhailovich

Cybersecurity has become a critical issue for most organisations due to their growing dependence on IT systems and the increasing complexity of the network environment. The article discusses an approach to assessing cybersecurity risks based on the Bayesian network approach and the FAIR model. A comparative analysis of various methods for quantitative assessment and management of cyber risks is conducted. The author describes a methodology for adaptive stochastic cyber resilience management based on a hybrid architecture of dynamic Bayesian networks with continuous time. A mathematical formalisation of the methodology is also presented, based on stochastic differential equations describing the evolution of security parameters over time.

Keywords:information security, risks, model, Bayesian network, assessment, dynamics.